US Crude Petroleum Consumption, Production Expected to Remain Below Pre-Pandemic Levels Through 2025


Cleveland, OH, October 27, 2021 — US consumption of crude petroleum is forecast to see 2.2% annual gains in volume terms through 2025, according to Crude Petroleum: United States, a report recently released by Freedonia Focus Reports. Increasing passenger miles traveled will raise demand for petroleum fuels and biofuels. Freight delivery fleets will log more miles traveled on planes, trains, ships, and trucks as economic growth and increasing e-commerce activity generate more freight. Expanding plastics production will support more crude petroleum demand as a feedstock. However, gains from 2020 to 2025 are not expected to offset pandemic-related declines from 2019 to 2020. Faster crude oil demand growth is threatened by ongoing fuel efficiency gains for many vehicles due to CAFE standards. Furthermore, the accelerating introduction of electric vehicles to the US motor vehicle park is also expected to constrain demand. Ongoing popularity of work-from-home and remote work measures are expected to outlast the pandemic; as a result, business travel will remain below trend over the forecast period, inhibiting jet fuel and gasoline used for business trips and daily commutes. Furthermore, increasing use of recycled plastic will restrain demand for petroleum in the production of virgin resin.

Production of crude petroleum in the US is forecast to rise 2.8% annually in volume terms through 2025. Production will benefit from demand's return to growth after the COVID-19 pandemic triggered declines in 2020. In addition, rising exports, caused by global economic growth (especially in China and India) and accompanying demand for petroleum products, will support gains. Advances will primarily reflect increasing outputs of crude oil and natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) as a consequence of rising production from shale, along with increasing offshore oil production. However, demand is not expected to reach 2019 levels over the forecast period, which will constrain production growth.

These and other key insights are featured in Crude Petroleum: United States. This report forecasts to 2021 and 2025 US crude petroleum demand and production in barrels (where one barrel is equivalent to 42 gallons). Total demand is segmented by type in terms of:

  • non-biofuels
  • biofuels

Total production is segmented by type as follows:

  • crude oil and lease condensates
  • natural gas plant liquids
  • biofuels
  • other liquids such as drip gases; liquid hydrocarbons produced from gilsonite, oil sands, oil shale, and tar sands; and non-hydrocarbons produced with oil, such as sulfur and various metals

To illustrate historical trends, total demand, total production, the various segments, and trade are provided in annual series from 2010 to 2020.

The terms crude oil and crude petroleum are used interchangeably throughout this report; demand and consumption are also used synonymously. Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) should not be confused with liquefied natural gas (LNG), which is excluded from the scope of this report.

More information about the report is available at: